Risk & Return

Treasury bonds are issued by the federal government. Bonds with a maturity of one year or less are called Treasury bills but we’ll keep calling them bonds. So, say the year is 1999 when one-year Treasury bonds paid 4 percent as interest. If bonds with a maturity of one year paid 4 percent, you wouldContinue reading “Risk & Return”

On Crypto

Crypto is not an investment. It can never be an investment. The United States dollar is not an investment. The Japanese yen is not an investment. The Euro is not an investment. None of these are investments. They are all currencies. The latter ones at least are. Crypto is not even a currency. Anything thatContinue reading “On Crypto”

On Bear Markets

Economist Hyman Minsky once wrote that stability brings instability. The more stable things become, and the longer things remain stable, the more unstable the system gets until an eventual crisis hits. And it makes sense. When there is never a risk in sight, when everyone is fat and happy is when the chances of theContinue reading “On Bear Markets”

Pascal’s Wager

My first exposure to a stock market boom and bust cycle was back home in India in the early 1990s in what was deemed the ‘Harshad Mehta’ scam. It was a classic pump and dump scheme that was financed by fake bank receipts which Mr. Mehta’s firm brokered in transactions between banks. He used theContinue reading “Pascal’s Wager”

Reserves

Reserves as in safe. Reserves as in accessible. Reserves as in durable. There is nothing safer than cash. There is nothing more accessible than cash. And if done right, there is nothing more durable than cash. And by done right means that the quantity of reserves matches the duration required of those reserves. For most,Continue reading “Reserves”

Yield Curves

Say someone you know is running short on funds and comes to you for a loan that he promises to pay back in a month. Will you lend him the money? And if so, would you do it for free? You’d say why not. You have loaned him money before and without fail, he paysContinue reading “Yield Curves”

Perspectives

A wise woman once said that when in doubt, zoom out. So zoom out I did. This is what a 40-year chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average looks like… Add in reinvested dividends and we are looking at an easy double of that. Or if you want to get exotic, here is what the IndianContinue reading “Perspectives”